Yes, foreign assistance and other international affairs spending faces cuts in a worsening economy (see earlier posts here and here that describe how advocates are responding). But, writes Robert McMahon at the Council on Foreign Relations (to which goes credit for the accompanying photo), the Pentagon may hit the chopping block first:

The most budgetary scrutiny could center on defense, where spending in the most recent fiscal year came close to the $700 billion pricetag of the government's bailout plan for the finance sector. Even before the financial crisis, experts acknowledged that recent growth in defense spending would need to be curtailed. Defense Secretary Robert M. Gates said in a speech last month at the National Defense University that the Pentagon must be prepared for "inescapable tradeoffs and opportunity costs."

Both Obama and McCain have spoken of the need to reform the Pentagon's procurement system to control costs. In addition, the controversial practice of budgetary supplementals, which since 2001 have funded the Iraq and Afghanistan wars and global counterterrorism operations separate from the normal budgeting process (at a cost of more than $800 billion), is expected to end no matter which candidate is elected. Meanwhile, military contractors are anticipating a move away from some expensive defense systems.

Two points here. First, notice Secretary Gates' admission that even the mighty defense lobby will have to prepare for "inescapable tradeoffs and opportunity costs." That underscores a point discussed previously: global issues advocates should likewise be prepared to prioritize, make tradoffs and justify funding for their issues in relationship to other priorities.

Second, simple "guns versus butter" arguments -- i.e. "The U.S. gets better bang for its buck by funding preventive aid programs than dealing militarily with crises after they happen" -- may not resonate so well when Congress is actively cutting military budgets already. The argument still holds, but legislators may be reluctant to cut yet more into the Pentagon's budget.

In other words, no matter how big the historic funding disparity between military and civilian agencies that deal with international challenges, everyone working in the foreign policy space will be feeling the squeeze.