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The Inscrutable Voter: Aryans for Obama


The thing that makes elections nerve-wracking is the fact that voters -- people, all -- are unpredictable creatures. Clever computer modeling, keen political instincts, diligent exit polling are powerful tools -- except when they fail entirely. Most pundits and pollsters were surprised by Obama's win in Iowa, re-calibrated, then were even more surprised by Clinton's win in New Hampshire. Social models and second-order explanations -- the Bradley Effect got a lot of attention -- were hauled out and scrutinized.

But voters continue their inscrutable ways. Like the all-white Idaho counties, "the prime rib of Red America," to quote New York Times blogger Timothy Egan, who voted overwhelmingly for Barack Obama:

Take a look at what happened on Tuesday in the nearly all-white counties of Idaho, a place where the Aryan Nations once placed a boot print of hate β€” β€œthe international headquarters of the white race,” as they called it.

The neo-Nazis are long gone. But in Kootenai County, where the extremists were holed up for several decades, a record number of Democrats trudged through heavy snow on Super Duper Tuesday to help pick the next president. Guess what: Senator Barack Obama took 81 percent of Kootenai County caucus voters, matching his landslide across the state. He won all but a single county.

The runaway victory came after a visit by Obama last Saturday, when 14,169 people filled the Taco Bell Arena in Boise to hear him speak – the largest crowd ever to fill the space, for any event. It was the biggest political rally the state has seen in more than 50 years.

Take that, Bradley Effect.

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