Climate Change: Latest Polling, Studies, Treaties, Degrees
Perhaps you've managed to avoid the avalanche of stories on climate change this week. No longer. Where to begin? Perhaps with yesterday's UN meeting that brought together more than 80 heads of state (and, of course, Al Gore) to build political momentum for December negotiations in Bali "on a new treaty, which is expected to impose deep cuts on emissions of heat-trapping gases by industrial powers," according to the Washington Post.
Secretary Rice offered the administration's usual vague language about supporting the forum without going so far as to entertain mandatory industrial caps. Who knows where these treaty negotiations will lead, but they seem far from the Kyoto process in many respects. For one, there is an insurrection afoot: California Gov. Arnold "Schwarzenegger said his state is following Europeans' example. 'California is moving the United States beyond debate and doubt to action,' he said. 'It is time we came together in a new international agreement that can be embraced by rich and poor nations alike.'"
The Post closes with a statement from the memorable Phil Clapp:
The appearance of so many world leaders at the event demonstrated that the international community intends to "proceed with the U.N.'s binding treaty negotiations almost regardless of what the administration does," said Philip Clapp, head of the National Environmental Trust. "The president is not only rapidly becoming a lame duck domestically but internationally as well."
The timing of these new treaty negotiations seems strategic indeed: is there a better time to get the ball rolling on a new climate treaty than at the point when the 2008 U.S. presidential election ramps up?
But there's another reason why these negotiations are markedly different than Kyoto: dealing with climate change has since become a democratic movement. Whereas scientists, public intellectuals and activists mostly led the charge for Kyoto, the public -- worldwide -- wants "major steps" taken, and soon. From a BBC World Service poll of 22,000 people in 21 countries:
An average of eight in ten (79%) say that “human activity, including industry and transportation, is a significant cause of climate change.”Nine out of ten say that action is necessary to address global warming. A substantial majority (65%) choose the strongest position, saying that “it is necessary to take major steps starting very soon.”
I've not seen international polling on climate change from Kyoto's early days, but I'd wager that research like the Center for Global Development's new study, "World Agriculture Faces Serious Decline from Global Warming," has done a lot to bring home the practical effects of climate change, giving it relevancy and immediacy that the issue lacked a decade ago.
Finally, it's heartening to read that business industry leaders and executives are taking a hard look at how to do business differently, as reflected in the new "green MBAs" that focus on making business decisions that balance profit with environmental impact.

